Improved decision-support for air traffic management and planning
Julia Sonander, Safety & Performance Management, NATS UK
Problem
- Decisions on architectural improvements to the National Air Traffic Control system must be determined on the basis of cost effectiveness and safety
- Traditional decision-making processes do not provide repeatable, auditable, or quantitative arguments, and rely heavily on the knowledge and experience of key National Air Transport Services (NATS) staff
- This knowledge and experience may be lost to future assessors when staff move on
Solution
- AgenaRisk was used to model the entire air traffic monitoring (ATM) system and make crucial predictions about collision avoidance
- Using AgenaRisk, NATS were able to see how the number of "near misses" and the probability of an actual mid-air collision changed when the ATM architecture was modified in different ways
Benefits
- AgenaRisk supports faster, more auditable, repeatable and quantified decision-making
- AgenaRisk enables architectural changes to be assessed on the basis of their quantified impact on safety
- AgenaRisk captures knowledge for future generations of experts


