Measuring Risks without taking one
Interview with Agena CTO Martin Neil, Homeland security magazine, Aug 2006
Located in London, Agena Ltd. provides risk-analysis and
decision support software. Originally a consulting firm, the company
has branched out and now offers its own product, AgenaRisk. According
to Chief 'I'echnical Officer Martin Neil, one of the software's best
features is Bayesian inference. 'I'his method is statistical in nature
and uses algorithms to fuse information about uncertain and ambiguous
factors to produce a hypothesis about an unknown. "Think medical
diagnosis based on symptoms, classification of enemy intent based on
observable behavior, or machine learning from data," said Neil.
The software's been used, he continued, in defense areas, where it has
categorized and tracked enemy units with input from sensors and humans.
Neil was not allowed to provide details about this, but he did note
that the company's staff has a NATO security clearance. It has also
been used for analyzing the risks found in software development and new
car production.
As for the software itself, it's based on models that use risk maps
(Bayesian Nets). These maps cover the effect of one event on other
aspects of a situation, and each effect is given a numerical weight.
That information becomes part of a simulation that eventually yields a
risk assessment. The system runs on a standard desktop machine.
Building a model takes only a few hours, while running it takes a few
seconds or minutes. Because it's a visually oriented approach, Neil
noted it was easier to change and maintain than a method that uses a
programming language or a spreadsheet-based system.
Although Agena now sells risk analysis software, the company hasn't
entirely left its past behind, realizing that sophisticated tools
aren't something that can simply be sold in a one size-fits-all way.
"We tend to work with customers to help build applications that suit
their particular problem and style of risk modeling-that way they get a
tool that uses AgenaRisk technology, but as part of an environment
they are familiar with," Neil explained.
